Table 1 Model inputs: patient profiles, treatment effects, costs, and utility changes

Patient Profiles

The initial cohort

Source

Patient characteristics

Mean

SE

Age, year

53.10

0.37

[6, 7]

Female proportion, %

43

2

Diabetes duration, year

6.38

0.18

Height, m ^†

1.66

–

Afro-Caribbean proportion, %

3

1

Indian proportion, %

0

0

Smokers proportion, %

22

1

[16]

Clinical risk factors

Mean

SE

HbA1c, %

8.10

0.03

[6]

TC, mg/dl ^‡

193.05

0.66

[16]

HDL-C, mg/dl ^‡

46.33

0.20

LDL-C, mg/dl ^‡

111.97

0.51

SBP, mmHg

128.80

0.50

[6]

Body weight, kg

76.40

0.54

Effect and costs with treatments

Semaglutide 0.5 mg + metformin

Semaglutide 1 mg + metformin

Sitagliptin 100 mg + metformin

Source

Insulin

Source

Treatment effects

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Mean

HbA1c change, %

–1.40

0.06

–1.70

0.06

–0.90

0.05

[6, 7]

−1.11

[18]

SBP change, mmHg

–3.40

0.87

–6.60

0.79

–1.10

0.80

0

Weight change, kg

–2.90

0.22

–4.20

0.22

–0.40

0.15

1.9

Symptomatic hypoglycemia, %

0.70

0.49

2.07

0.84

1.38

0.68

62

Severe hypoglycemia, %

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

Gastrointestinal reactions, %

37.63

2.86

44.48

2.92

18.97

2.30

0

Discontinuation, %

12.54

1.96

15.86

2.15

5.86

1.38

0

Treatment costs

Mean

Mean

Mean

Annual costs, ¥ ($) ^§

6042 (897)

9711 (1441)

2695 (400)

[20,21,22]

Costs and utility with diabetes related events

Fatal costs,

¥ ($)^§

Non-fatal costs,

¥ ($)^§

Maintenance costs, ¥ ($)^§

Source

Utility change

Source

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Mean

SE

Ischemic heart disease

22,775

(3381)

6714

(997)

25,188

(3739)

1664

(247)

3476

(516)

459

(68)

[12]

–0.028

0.005

[24]

Myocardial infarction

41,660

(6184)

8826

(1310)

56,088

(8325)

3985

(591)

6907

(1025)

–

–0.028

0.005

Congestive heart failure

37,498

(5566)

13,930

(2068)

34,277

(5088)

6667

(990)

3286

(488)

1898

(282)

–0.028

0.005

Stroke

73,290

(10,879)

19,838

(2945)

26,883

(3990)

2553

(379)

4512

(670)

776

(115)

–0.101

0.006

Amputation

–

–

23,522

(3491)

–

3739

(555)

–

–0.118

0.009

Blindness

–

–

16,728

(2483)

652

(97)

5518

(819)

512

(76)

–0.022

0.005

End-stage renal disease

16,396

(2434)

3922

(582)

16,893

(2508)

585

(87)

5907

(877)

574

(85)

–0.058

0.006

Ulcer

–

–

26,542

(3940)

2868

(426)

6188

(919)

1629

(242)

–0.118

0.009

Symptomatic hypoglycemia

–

–

0

–

–

–

–0.007

0.002

Severe hypoglycemia

–

–

4345

(645)

–

–

–

[23]

–0.008

0.004

Gastrointestinal reactions

–

–

0

–

–

–

–0.034

0

[25]

BMI per unit increase

–

–

–

–

–

–

–0.0061

0.001

[26]

BMI per unit decrease

–

–

–

–

–

–

0.0061

0.001

BMI-related costs

Costs, ¥ ($)^§

BMI

Costs, ¥ ($)^§

BMI

Costs, ¥ ($)^§

Source

≤ 23

0

29

15,022

(2230)

35

30,881

(4584)

[12]

24

1807

(268)

30

17,665

(2622)

36

33,524

(4976)

25

4450

(660)

31

20,308

(3014)

37

36,167

(5368)

26

7093

(1053)

32

22,951

(3407)

38

38,810

(5761)

27

9736

(1445)

33

25,595

(3799)

39

41,453

(6153)

28

12,379

(1837)

34

28,238

(4191)

40+

44,096

(6545)