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Table 3 The effects on smoking participation

From: The impacts of recent smoking control policies on individual smoking choice: the case of Japan

Gender

Male

   

Female

   

Model

Basic model

 

Dynamic model

 

Basic model

 

Dynamic model

 

Estimation method

Probit

IV-Probit

Probit

IV-Probit

Probit

IV-Probit

Probit

IV-Probit

Variables

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Coef/SE

Cigarette price per pack

-0.032**

-0.027**

-0.018

-0.026*

-0.090***

-0.086***

-0.059***

-0.071***

 

(0.013)

(0.014)

(0.015)

(0.016)

(0.017)

(0.017)

(0.020)

(0.025)

Marginal effects

[-0.012]

[-0.010]

[-0.007]

[-0.009]

[-0.021]

[-0.020]

[-0.014]

[-0.016]

Health Promotion Law

-0.179

-0.186

-0.420***

-0.368**

-0.271

-0.263

-0.514**

-0.422

 

(0.114)

(0.115)

(0.145)

(0.143)

(0.264)

(0.209)

(0.240)

(0.257)

Marginal effects

[-0.065]

[-0.067]

[-0.152]

[-0.133]

[-0.063]

[-0.055]

[-0.119]

[-0.080]

Age

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

-0.020***

 

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.003)

(0.003)

(0.003)

(0.003)

Years of education

-0.032***

-0.033***

-0.032***

-0.032***

-0.081***

-0.081***

-0.079***

-0.079***

 

(0.007)

(0.007)

(0.007)

(0.007)

(0.018)

(0.016)

(0.017)

(0.016)

Office worker

0.006

0.006

0.007

0.008

0.185**

0.185**

0.176**

0.177**

 

(0.089)

(0.088)

(0.089)

(0.089)

(0.078)

(0.072)

(0.079)

(0.072)

Manual worker

0.208**

0.209**

0.216**

0.216**

0.259**

0.261**

0.237**

0.241*

 

(0.093)

(0.093)

(0.094)

(0.094)

(0.117)

(0.123)

(0.120)

(0.123)

Unemployment

0.238*

0.240*

0.240*

0.239*

0.461*

0.453*

0.437*

0.438*

 

(0.133)

(0.132)

(0.134)

(0.133)

(0.260)

(0.253)

(0.262)

(0.253)

Income: 1–2.5 million yen

0.187*

0.187*

0.186*

0.187*

-0.079

-0.078

-0.077

-0.079

 

(0.110)

(0.110)

(0.110)

(0.110)

(0.067)

(0.098)

(0.070)

(0.097)

Income: 2.5- 3.5 million yen

0.154

0.153

0.153

0.153

0.047

0.046

0.042

0.042

 

(0.128)

(0.128)

(0.129)

(0.129)

(0.121)

(0.113)

(0.125)

(0.113)

Income: 3.5- 4.5 million yen

0.154

0.155

0.151

0.151

-0.111

-0.111

-0.109

-0.110

 

(0.115)

(0.114)

(0.115)

(0.115)

(0.128)

(0.129)

(0.130)

(0.129)

Income: 4.5- 5.5 million yen

0.216*

0.216*

0.212*

0.213*

-0.040

-0.038

-0.055

-0.054

 

(0.111)

(0.111)

(0.111)

(0.110)

(0.120)

(0.131)

(0.121)

(0.131)

Income: 5.5- 7.5 million yen

0.042

0.041

0.040

0.040

0.088

0.088

0.075

0.077

 

(0.105)

(0.105)

(0.106)

(0.106)

(0.102)

(0.120)

(0.102)

(0.120)

Income: 7.5- 10 million yen

0.143

0.145

0.145

0.143

-0.032

-0.032

-0.049

-0.047

 

(0.114)

(0.114)

(0.114)

(0.114)

(0.204)

(0.136)

(0.202)

(0.136)

Income: More than 10 million yen

-0.001

-0.001

0.002

0.001

-0.020

-0.018

-0.024

-0.027

 

(0.104)

(0.103)

(0.103)

(0.103)

(0.144)

(0.141)

(0.145)

(0.141)

Marital status

-0.142***

-0.143***

-0.142***

-0.141***

-0.150**

-0.151**

-0.149**

-0.149**

 

(0.053)

(0.053)

(0.053)

(0.053)

(0.061)

(0.068)

(0.062)

(0.068)

Number of housemates (Over 20)

0.002

0.002

0.002

0.002

-0.066**

-0.067**

-0.068**

-0.068**

 

(0.020)

(0.020)

(0.020)

(0.020)

(0.029)

(0.028)

(0.029)

(0.028)

Number of housemates (Under 20)

0.007

0.007

0.006

0.006

0.010

0.010

0.010

0.010

 

(0.024)

(0.023)

(0.024)

(0.024)

(0.041)

(0.033)

(0.040)

(0.033)

Residence (Other cities)

0.142***

0.143***

0.155***

0.153***

-0.470***

-0.479

-0.470***

-0.475

 

(0.026)

(0.026)

(0.023)

(0.024)

(0.112)

(0.359)

(0.123)

(0.359)

Residence (in the 13 largest cities)

0.520***

0.514***

0.506***

0.515***

0.969***

0.954

0.911***

0.912

 

(0.046)

(0.046)

(0.047)

(0.046)

(0.056)

(0.682)

(0.059)

(0.682)

Real GDP (billion yen)

0.378***

0.348***

0.567***

0.575***

1.221***

1.189***

1.361***

1.360***

 

(0.088)

(0.090)

(0.109)

(0.110)

(0.129)

(0.130)

(0.157)

(0.155)

Unemployment rate

0.464***

0.471***

0.295***

0.301***

1.855***

1.807***

1.714***

1.723***

 

(0.102)

(0.103)

(0.087)

(0.086)

(0.251)

(0.172)

(0.167)

(0.139)

Constant

-12.526***

-12.260***

-24.504***

-23.076***

-49.391***

-48.443***

-63.025***

-60.265***

 

(2.671)

(2.663)

(5.574)

(5.510)

(5.909)

(4.603)

(8.660)

(9.459)

atanh ρ

 

-0.047***

 

0.029

    
  

(0.018)

 

(0.024)

    

lnσ

 

-0.978***

 

-0.314***

    
  

(0.006)

 

(0.008)

    

Health Promotion Law

Dummy

Dummy

Elapsed years

Elapsed years

Dummy

Dummy

Elapsed years

Elapsed years

Number of observations

4367

4367

4367

4367

2970

2970

2970

2970

Log pseudolikelihood

-2762.417

-4686.603

-2760.478

-7583.357

-1239.715

(TSE)

-1238.328

(TSE)

Wald test for H0: all coefficients = 0

χ2 (47) = 4.7e+10***

χ2 (41) = 8.4e+10***

χ2 (47) = 7.3e+10***

χ2 (40) = 3.1e+09***

χ2 (47) = 1.3e+10***

χ2 (124) = 599.16***

χ2 (47) = 1.1e+10***

χ2 (124) = 612.53***

Wald test for H0: local effects = 0

χ2 (43) = 1.1e+11***

χ2 (41) = 8.7e+10***

χ2 (44) = 2.9e+11***

χ2 (40) = 9.4e+10***

χ2 (44) = 2.3e+10***

χ2 (46) = 28.28

χ2 (45) = 2.6e+10***

χ2 (46) = 27.17

Wald test for H0: local effects * Other city = 0

χ2 (42) = 9.6e+10***

χ2 (41) = 8.1e+10***

χ2 (42) = 9.3e+10***

χ2 (40) = 2.9e+09***

χ2 (45) = 2.6e+10***

χ2 (46) = 28.23

χ2 (46) = 1.1e+11***

χ2 (46) = 27.47

Wald test for H0: local effects * the 13 largest cities = 0

χ2 (12) = 7199.49***

χ2 (12) = 7109.37***

χ2 (12) = 7294.49***

χ2 (12) = 7634.66***

χ2 (11) = 935.24***

χ2 (11) = 8.02

χ2 (11) = 864.79***

χ2 (11) = 7.66

Wald test for exogeneity of cigarette tax

 

χ2 (1) = 7.21***

 

χ2 (1) = 1.47

 

χ2 (1) = 4.00**

 

χ2 (1) = 1.23

First stage F-statistics

 

χ2 (1) = 137789.44***

 

χ2 (1) = 11787.44***

 

χ2 (1) = 45654.87***

 

χ2 (1) = 13169.86***

  1. Note: (1) Robust standard errors allowing for correlated residuals within prefectures are shown in parentheses.
  2. (2) ***, **, and * represent statistical significance at the 1, 5, and 10 percent levels, respectively.
  3. (3) All equations include the prefectural dummy variables and the interactions between prefectural dummies and residence dummy variables.
  4. (4) Marginal effects in squared parentheses are evaluated at the sample mean.
  5. (5) TSE indicates that Newey’s [31] two-step estimation is used.
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Health Economics Review

ISSN: 2191-1991

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