From: The impacts of recent smoking control policies on individual smoking choice: the case of Japan
Gender | Male | Â | Â | Â | Female | Â | Â | Â |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | Basic model | Â | Dynamic model | Basic model | Dymanic model | |||
Estimation method | Probit | IV-Probit | Probit | IV-Probit | Probit | IV-Probit | Probit | IV-Probit |
Variables | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE | ME/SE |
Cigarette tax per pack | -0.036 | -0.029*** | -0.008 | 0.007 | -0.079*** | -0.073*** | -0.008 | -0.044 |
  * Office worker | (0.014) | (0.011) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.020) | (0.020) | (0.037) | (0.044) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.013] | [-0.012] | [-0.003] | [0.003] | [-0.018] | [-0.017] | [-0.002] | [-0.010] |
Cigarette tax per pack | -0.032** | -0.024* | -0.032* | -0.034 | -0.034 | -0.004 | -0.217 | -0.243* |
  * Manual worker | (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.020) | (0.033) | (0.029) | (0.050) | (0.144) | (0.138) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.011] | [-0.010] | [-0.012] | [-0.014] | [-0.008] | [-0.001] | [-0.050] | [-0.050] |
Cigarette tax per pack | -0.002 | 0.037 | 0.140* | 0.086 | -0.151** | -0.161 | -0.434* | -0.527 |
  * Unemployment | (0.034) | (0.049) | (0.081) | (0.111) | (0.062) | (0.099) | (0.254) | (1.490) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.001] | [0.015] | [0.050] | [0.034] | [-0.035] | [-0.035] | [-0.100] | [-0.092] |
Cigarette tax per pack | -0.030** | -0.028** | -0.034 | -0.079*** | -0.099*** | -0.097*** | -0.086*** | -0.073* |
  * Non-worker | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.024) | (0.028) | (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.028) | (0.044) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.011] | [-0.011] | -[0.012] | [-0.031] | [-0.023] | [-0.022] | [-0.020] | [-0.017] |
the Health Promotion Law | -0.024 | -0.053 | -0.483*** | -0.608*** | -0.362 | -0.375 | -0.896** | -0.611 |
  * Office worker | (0.150) | (0.136) | (0.162) | (0.218) | (0.320) | (0.294) | (0.350) | (0.381) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.009] | [-0.021] | [-0.174] | [-0.233] | [-0.084] | [-0.072] | [-0.206] | [-0.101] |
the Health Promotion Law | -0.289 | -0.338 | -0.331* | -0.324 | -1.178** | -1.576** | 0.792 | 0.988 |
  * Manual worker | (0.181) | (0.218) | (0.197) | (0.283) | (0.467) | (0.783) | (1.136) | (1.076) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.104] | [-0.134] | [-0.119] | [-0.128] | [-0.272] | [-0.149] | [0.183] | [0.332] |
the Health Promotion Law | -0.336 | -0.832 | -1.417** | -1.000 | -0.103 | 0.160 | 2.029 | 2.795 |
  * Unemployment | (0.553) | (0.733) | (0.669) | (0.817) | (1.294) | (1.664) | (1.946) | (13.929) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.121] | [-0.306] | [-0.511] | [-0.354] | [-0.024] | [0.041] | [0.468] | [0.809] |
the Health Promotion Law | -0.387*** | -0.301* | -0.327 | 0.006 | -0.045 | 0.024 | -0.345 | -0.439 |
  * Non-worker | (0.141) | (0.175) | (0.210) | (0.249) | (0.315) | (0.298) | (0.302) | (0.380) |
  Marginal effects | [-0.140] | [-0.119] | [-0.118] | [0.002] | [-0.010] | [0.006] | [-0.080] | [-0.081] |
Age | -0.020*** | -0.020*** | -0.020*** | -0.020*** | -0.021*** | -0.021*** | -0.020*** | -0.020*** |
 | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.003) |
Years of education | -0.032*** | -0.032*** | -0.032*** | -0.032*** | -0.082*** | -0.083*** | -0.080*** | -0.080*** |
 | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.018) | (0.016) | (0.017) | (0.016) |
Office worker | 1.438 | 0.126 | -6.243 | -20.460** | -4.575 | -5.484 | -18.674 | -6.883 |
 | (1.733) | (2.150) | (5.961) | (9.133) | (2.993) | (4.014) | (12.057) | (16.847) |
Manual worker | 0.678 | -0.884 | -0.209 | -10.363 | -15.282** | -21.916* | 31.434 | 40.728 |
 | (2.021) | (2.779) | (6.713) | (10.694) | (7.366) | (11.323) | (35.158) | (35.187) |
Unemployment | -6.472 | -15.516 | -41.446* | -39.324 | 13.068 | 15.864 | 83.559 | 108.994 |
 | (6.984) | (11.305) | (21.691) | (27.512) | (13.809) | (23.441) | (60.593) | (355.841) |
Income: 1–2.5 million yen | 0.188* | 0.190 | 0.183* | 0.182 | -0.083 | -0.084 | -0.070 | -0.073 |
 | (0.110) | (0.116) | (0.110) | (0.116) | (0.068) | (0.098) | (0.073) | (0.098) |
Income: 2.5- 3.5 million yen | 0.153 | 0.154 | 0.148 | 0.149 | 0.045 | 0.042 | 0.044 | 0.043 |
 | (0.128) | (0.114) | (0.129) | (0.114) | (0.125) | (0.114) | (0.126) | (0.114) |
Income: 3.5- 4.5 million yen | 0.154 | 0.156 | 0.145 | 0.144 | -0.110 | -0.109 | -0.108 | -0.108 |
 | (0.115) | (0.113) | (0.116) | (0.113) | (0.128) | (0.129) | (0.131) | (0.129) |
Income: 4.5- 5.5 million yen | 0.214* | 0.215* | 0.207* | 0.208* | -0.053 | -0.052 | -0.082 | -0.079 |
 | (0.111) | (0.116) | (0.110) | (0.116) | (0.120) | (0.132) | (0.123) | (0.133) |
Income: 5.5- 7.5 million yen | 0.039 | 0.039 | 0.033 | 0.033 | 0.075 | 0.073 | 0.058 | 0.065 |
 | (0.107) | (0.110) | (0.106) | (0.110) | (0.103) | (0.122) | (0.101) | (0.122) |
Income: 7.5- 10 million yen | 0.140 | 0.143 | 0.140 | 0.143 | -0.045 | -0.046 | -0.060 | -0.054 |
 | (0.114) | (0.114) | (0.115) | (0.114) | (0.204) | (0.138) | (0.197) | (0.138) |
Income: More than 10 million yen | 0.001 | 0.002 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.034 | -0.031 | -0.044 | -0.043 |
 | (0.105) | (0.126) | (0.103) | (0.126) | (0.150) | (0.143) | (0.150) | (0.142) |
Marital status | -0.141** | -0.141** | -0.140** | -0.139** | -0.149** | -0.150** | -0.148** | -0.147** |
 | (0.053) | (0.061) | (0.054) | (0.061) | (0.062) | (0.068) | (0.062) | (0.068) |
Number of housemates (Over 20) | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.002 | -0.067** | -0.068** | -0.069** | -0.069** |
 | (0.020) | (0.019) | (0.020) | (0.019) | (0.030) | (0.028) | (0.030) | (0.028) |
Number of housemates (Under 20) | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.011 | 0.009 | 0.010 |
 | (0.024) | (0.023) | (0.024) | (0.023) | (0.040) | (0.033) | (0.039) | (0.033) |
Residence (Other cities) | 0.148*** | 0.154 | 0.155*** | 0.157 | -0.475*** | -0.491 | -0.492*** | -0.497 |
 | (0.025) | (0.252) | (0.023) | (0.252) | (0.111) | (0.361) | (0.135) | (0.360) |
Residence (in the 13 largest cities) | 0.542*** | 0.579 | 0.591*** | 0.539 | 0.965*** | 0.936 | 0.898*** | 0.914 |
 | (0.055) | (0.460) | (0.069) | (0.468) | (0.068) | (0.687) | (0.065) | (0.677) |
Real GDP (billion yen) | 0.384*** | 0.351*** | 0.566*** | 0.575*** | 1.204*** | 1.165*** | 1.375*** | 1.373*** |
 | (0.089) | (0.073) | (0.109) | (0.110) | (0.131) | (0.132) | (0.161) | (0.156) |
Unemployment rate | 0.462*** | 0.475*** | 0.288*** | 0.294*** | 1.861*** | 1.810*** | 1.730*** | 1.747*** |
 | (0.101) | (0.094) | (0.087) | (0.085) | (0.253) | (0.173) | (0.168) | (0.141) |
Constant | -13.374*** | -12.069*** | -20.725*** | -10.466 | -46.296*** | -44.541*** | -57.252*** | -60.340*** |
 | (2.969) | (2.749) | (7.210) | (8.369) | (6.332) | (5.130) | (10.610) | (12.844) |
Health Promotion Law | Dummy | Dummy | Elapsed years | Elapsed years | Dummy | Dummy | Elapsed years | Elapsed years |
Number of observations | 4367 | 4367 | 4367 | 4367 | 2970 | 2970 | 2970 | 2970 |
Log pseudolikelihood | -2757.817 | (TSE) | -2756.472 | (TSE) | -1235.905 | (TSE) | -1232.920 | (TSE) |
Wald test for H0: all coefficients = 0 | χ2 (47) = 4.2e+10*** | χ2 (131) = 469.41*** | χ2 (47) = 5.3e+10*** | χ2 (131) = 475.15*** | χ2 (47) = 9.6e+09*** | χ2 (130) = 601.47*** | χ2 (47) = 7.8e+09*** | χ2 (130) = 613.52*** |
Wald test for H0: local effects = 0 | χ2 (44) = 3.0e+11*** | χ2 (46) = 33.11 | χ2 (41) = 6.7e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 33.06 | χ2 (46) = 2.7e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 28.48 | χ2 (45) = 5.3e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 26.87 |
Wald test for H0: local effects * Other city = 0 | χ2 (42) = 9.1e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 29.32 | χ2 (43) = 7.3e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 30.05 | χ2 (45) = 2.1e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 27.72 | χ2 (45) = 3.9e+10*** | χ2 (46) = 26.88 |
Wald test for H0: local effects * the 13 largest cities = 0 | χ2 (12) = 4645.32*** | χ2 (12) = 6.19 | χ2 (12) = 4362.10*** | χ2 (12) = 6.63 | χ2 (11) = 456.15*** | χ2 (11) = 8.15 | χ2 (11) = 858.46*** | χ2 (11) = 8.24 |
Wald test for exogeneity of cigarette taxes: χ2 (1) |  | χ2 (4) = 9.21* |  | χ2 (4) = 7.95* |  | χ2 (4) = 5.73 |  | χ2 (4) = 2.33 |
First stage F-stat | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
  for CPI * Office worker |  | F(4,4281) = 5017.10*** |  | F(4,4281) = 1907.96*** |  | F(4,2885) = 2445.51*** |  | F(4,2885) = 1219.26*** |
  for CPI * Manual worker |  | F(4,4281) = 4337.32*** |  | F(4,4281) = 1601.43*** |  | F(4,2885) = 1436.00*** |  | F(4,2885) = 786.06*** |
  for CPI * Unemployment |  | F(4,4281) = 1544.91*** |  | F(4,4281) = 1812.30*** |  | F(4,2885) = 1890.17*** |  | F(4,2885) = 952.44*** |
  for CPI * Nonworker |  | F(4,4281) = 4543.63*** |  | F(4,4281) = 1684.49*** |  | F(4,2885) = 2718.65*** |  | F(4,2885) = 1194.51*** |