Table 3 Results of the first stage analysis for the blue and green sets

Adjusted R-Sq

0.5660

0.5988

0.5281

0.5489

0.9

0.6

−0.0499

% MAE: Green Model w/ Green Observed

5.50%

2.40%

5.08%

2.38%

5.01%

2.35%

0.03%

% Residuals >5% (i.e. 5.0 for Raw, and 0.05 for Rescaled)

55%

5%

50%

10%

50%

5%

5%

% MAE: Green Model w/ Blue Observed

6.50%

3.90%

6.30%

4.08%

6.13%

4.59%

−0.51%

% MAE: Green Model w/ Green Holdouts

5.15%

4.65%

5.28%

4.84%

6.03%

5.61%

−0.77%

Correlation within sample (Green Model w/ Green Observed)

0.9778

0.9945

0.9804

0.9943

0.98

0.9940

0

Correlation out of sample (Green model w/ Blue Observed)

0.9725

0.9871

0.9731

0.9854

0.97

0.97

0.01

Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

Model 4

Model 5

Model 6

BLUE SET

Model 4 versus Model 6

No Constant

With Constant

No Constant

With Constant

No Constant

With Constant

Adjusted R-Sq

0.5280

0.57

0.54

0.57

0.9

0.57

0

% MAE: Blue Model w/ Blue Observed

5.40%

2.25%

5.00%

2.25%

4.90%

2.21%

0.04%

% Residuals >5% (i.e. 5.0 for Raw, and 0.05 for Rescaled)

40%

10%

40%

10%

40%

10%

0%

% MAE: Blue Model w/ Green Observed

6.37%

3.85%

5.99%

3.81%

6.25%

3.85%

−0.04%

% MAE: Blue Model w/ Blue Holdouts

4.53%

2.46%

4.22%

2.63%

5.95%

2.62%

−0.01%

Correlation within sample (Blue Model w/ Blue Observed)

0.9725

0.9944

0.9745

0.9936

0.9750

0.99

0

Correlation out of sample (Blue model w/ Green Observed)

0.9594

0.9818

0.9631

0.9821

0.9630

0.9820

0