Table 1 Modelling inputs

Medical NEC

3.5% for birth weight 500–999 g

2.1% for birth weight 1000–1749 g

0.5% for birth weight 1750–2500 g [21]

MM vs MM + formula: 0.412 [22]

Formula vs MM and formula: 3.006 [23]

27.2 days stay in NICU [24]

Cost per day of £630.08 based on weighted average of neonatal critical care codes [25]

Total cost of £1,739

N/A

N/A

Surgical NEC

3.3% for birth weight 500–999 g

0.6% for birth weight 1000–1749 g

0.1% for birth weight 1750–2500 g [21]

As for medical NEC

£1,739 (non-elective inpatient: major neonatal diagnosis) [25]

Plus incurs cost of medical NEC treatment.

Total cost of £18,877.

N/A

N/A

Sepsis

27.2% for birth weight 500–999 g

8.2% for birth weight 1000–1749 g

4.7% for birth weight 1750–2500 g [26]

MM vs MM + formula: 0.707 [22]

Formula vs MM and formula: 0.803 [27]

5.9 days stay in NICU [24]

Cost per day of £630.08 based on weighted average of neonatal critical care codes [25]

Total cost of £17,138.

N/A

N/A

Mortality in NICU

20.5% for birth weight 500–999 g [28]

8.0% for birth weight 1000–1749 g [29]

5.0% for birth weight 1750–2500 g [30]

If medical NEC: 2.055 [28]

If surgical NEC: 3.124 [28]

If sepsis. 3.219 [29]

N/A

N/A

Lost (discounted) QALYs per premature death of on average 23.6. Based on mean life expectancy and age-related quality of life [31, 32]

SIDS

0.07% (per live birth) [33]

0.40 (any breastfeeding versus formula) [34]

£72 (VB11Z: Emergency Mediine, No Investigation with No Significant Treatment) [25]

N/A

Lost (discounted) QALYs per premature death of on average 23.6. Based on mean life expectancy and age-related quality of life [31, 32]

AOM

0.14% (for infants under the age of 1) [10]

0.40 (any breastfeeding versus formula) [35]

£46 - visit to a general practitioner [36]

N/A

N/A

Leukaemia

0.04% (cumulative incidence up to age 15) [37]

0.91 (any breastfeeding versus formula) [38]

£114,456 per case of leukaemia (includes all treatment-related costs) [39]

92% survival rate [40]

0.66 on treatment [41]

Obesity

9.5% (proportion children aged 4 to 5 defined as obese) [42]

Probability of an obese child being an obese adult: 65% [43]

0.79 (any breastfeeding versus formula) [12]

N/A (see diabetes and CHD)

N/A (see diabetes and CHD)

N/A (see diabetes and CHD)

Type 2 diabetes

9.61% (prevalence in obese adults) [44]

N/A

£787 per year [45]

Age at diagnosis: 55

Life expectancy: 75 [46]

0.866 [45]

CHD

6.04% (prevalence in obese adults) [44]

N/A

£1,974 per year [45]

Age at diagnosis: 65

Life expectancy: 75 (assumption)

0.867 [45]

NDI

49% for birth weight 500–999 g

41% for birth weight 1000–1749 g

34% for birth weight 1750–2500 g [47]

Mild NDI: 65%

Moderate NDI: 22%

Severe NDI: 14% [47]

Given sepsis: 2.282 [29]

Given medical NEC: 1.187 [28]

Given surgical NEC: 1.985 [28]

Lifetime cost of disability

Mild: £14,421

Moderate: £13,959

Severe: £365,005 [48]

Life expectancy (years)

Mild: 78.5

Moderate: 67.8

Severe: 26.1 [48]

Mild: 0.85

Moderate: 0.645

Severe: 0.47 [48]