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Table 1 The model input parameters

From: The premarket assessment of the cost-effectiveness of a predictive technology “Straticyte™” for the early detection of oral cancer: a decision analytic model

Parametersa

Base case

Deterministic

Probabilistic

Reference/ Sources

Low value

High value

Distribution

Transition probabilitiesb

 pSevere

0.271

0.187

0.355

Dirichlet (α1 = 29, α2 = 78)

12

 pModerate

0.355

0.264

0.446

Dirichlet (α1 = 38, α2 = 69)

12

 pMild

0.374

0.282

0.466

Dirichlet (α1 = 40, α2 = 67)

12

 pSevere_C

0.759

0.603

0.914

Beta (α = 22, β = 7)

12

 pModerate_C

0.632

0.478

0.785

Beta (α = 24, β = 14)

12

 pMild_C

0.375

0.225

0.525

Beta (α = 15, β = 25)

12

 pSevere_HighR

0.931

0.839

1.023

Dirichlet (α1 = 27, α2 = 2)

12

 pModerate_HighR

0.158

0.042

0.274

Dirichlet (α1 = 6, α2 = 32)

12

 pMild_HighR

N/A

N/A

N/A

Dirichlet (α1 = 0, α2 = 40)

12

 pSevere_MediumR

0.069

0.000

0.161

Dirichlet (α1 = 2, α2 = 27)

12

 pModerate_MediumR

0.842

0.726

0.958

Dirichlet (α1 = 32, α2 = 6)

12

 pMild_MediumR

0.500

0.345

0.655

Dirichlet (α1 = 20, α2 = 20)

12

 pSevere_LowR

N/A

N/A

N/A

Dirichlet (α1 = 0, α2 = 29)

12

 pModerate_LowR

N/A

N/A

N/A

Dirichlet (α1 = 0, α2 = 38)

12

 pMild_LowR

0.500

0.345

0.655

Dirichlet (α1 = 20, α2 = 20)

12

 pSevere_HighR_C

0.815

0.668

0.961

Beta (α = 22, β = 5)

12

 pModerate_HighR_C

0.833

0.535

1.132

Beta (α = 5, β = 1)

12

 pMild_HighR_C

N/A

N/A

N/A

Beta (α = 0, β = 0)

12

 pSevere_MediumR_C

N/A

N/A

N/A

Beta (α = 0, β = 2)

12

 pModerate_MediumR_C

0.594

0.424

0.764

Beta (α = 19, β = 13)

12

 pMild_MediumR_C

0.550

0.332

0.768

Beta (α = 11, β = 9)

12

 pSevere_LowR_C

N/A

N/A

N/A

Beta (α = 0, β = 0)

12

 pModerate_LowR_C

N/A

N/A

N/A

Beta (α = 0, β = 0)

12

 pMild_LowR_C

0.200

0.025

0.375

Beta (α = 4, β = 16)

12

Relative risk of developing cancer with Excision (i.e. surgery)

 rrMT

0.51

0.230

1.140

LogNormal (ln (mean

= −0.673, SE = 0.408)

SR/MA

Costs and Resources

 cHistopathology

$ 88

$ 70.4

$ 105.6

Gamma (α100=, β = 0.88)

34

 cBiomarker

$ 250

$ 200

$ 300

Gamma (α = 100, β = 2.5)

Manufacturer

 cExcision

$ 384

$ 307.2

$ 460.8

Gamma (α = 100, β = 3.84)

34

 cFollow-up

$ 129

$ 103.2

$ 154.8

Gamma (α = 100, β = 1.29)

34

 cPathology

$ 95

$ 76

$ 114

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.95)

Experts Opinion

 cPainMed_T2

$ 12.65

$ 10.15

$ 15.15

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.127)

Experts Opinion

 cPainMed_P

$ 25.17

$ 22.67

$ 27.67

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.252)

Experts Opinion

 cWork_Loss

25.42

20.336

30.504

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.254)

16

 cTransportation

0.575

0.46

0.69

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.00575)

16

 cParking

20 times

16 times

24 times

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.2)

Assumption

 HRSofWORK

24 h

0 h

40 h

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.240)

Experts Opinion

 avgDISTANCE

60 Km

48 Km

72 Km

Gamma (α = 100, β = 0.600)

Assumption

 employed

0.9271

0

0

None

16

 V_E6M_year

2 visits

1 visits

3 visits

None

Experts Opinion

 V_E3M_year

4 visits

3 visits

5 visits

None

Experts Opinion

  1. p probability, C cancer, R risk, rrMT relative risk of malignant transformation, c cost, T2 Tylenol 2, p peridex, V visits, E6M every 6 months, E3M every 3 months, SR/MA systematic review and meta-analysis, Beta Beta distribution, Gamma Gamma distribution, Dirichlet Dirichlet distribution
  2. aAll the parameters are defined in Additional file 1: Table S9
  3. bAll transition probabilities are “five year probabilities” and all transition probabilities to cancer are probabilities in the absence of excision (i.e. surgery)
  4. N/A: not available (i.e. there have been no observations in the retrospective study with this outcome)12
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Health Economics Review

ISSN: 2191-1991

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