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Table 2 Results of the sensitivity analysis for 9 parameters with a high degree of fluctuation and the discount factor, timeframe four years, starting age 75 years old

From: A cost-effectiveness analysis model of Preventicus atrial fibrillation screening from the point of view of statutory health insurance in Germany

Parameter

Variable

 

Minimum

value

Delta

costs a

Maximum

value

Delta

Costs a

Base case, model timeframe 4 years, starting age 75 years

Discounted by 3%

M

F

 

44.85 €

19.31 €

  

pAF

Undetected AF in % of detected AF

population (base case: 33%)

M

F

10%

−21.91 €

−29.57 €

70%

149.75 €

96.13 €

cStroke_

Factor

Scaling factor stroke costs

100% = base case

M

F

50%

6.85 €

−7.94 €

150%

82.84 €

46.57 €

RSA_Factor

Scaling factor RSA compensation payments; base case: factor 1.0

M

F

0.0

−48.57 €

−50.53 €

1.25

68.20 €

36.77 €

orStroke_AF_

reduction

Effectiveness of stroke prevention

0% - no effect; base case: 70%

M

F

40%

14.87 €

−2.51 €

90%

65.86 €

34.58 €

AgeStart

Starting age of the population

Base case: 75 years old

M

F

65 years old

−20.72 €

−36.56 €

85 years old

109.05 €

71.69 €

orStroke_AF_

NOATT

Increased stroke rate with AF without prevention; Base case: factor 4.2

M

F

2.0

13.81 €

−3.48 €

5.0

55.05 €

26.85 €

cTest_Factor

Scaling factor screening costs

100% = base case (€47.54 / €297.50)

M

F

50%

52.52 €

25.27 €

500%

−16.55 €

−28.33 €

orMortAF_base

Increased background mortality, AF subpop.

25% increase = base case

M

F

0%

48.17 €

20.99 €

75%

38.77 €

16.19 €

Discount rate

Discount factor

3% = base case

M

F

1%

48.42 €

21.99 €

5%

41.51 €

16.82 €

  1. a Delta costs: cost advantage for screening strategy (if positive), cost disadvantage for screening strategy (if negative)