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Table 6 Parameters of the deterministic sensitivity analysis

From: A cost-effectiveness analysis model of Preventicus atrial fibrillation screening from the point of view of statutory health insurance in Germany

 

Sensitivity analysis

Base

case

Model parameters

min

max

General Starting age

65

85

75

 Undetected AF in % detected AF

10.0%

70.0%

33.3%

 Increase in background mortality, AF subpopulation

0%

75.0%

25.0%

 Sensitivity Preventicus screening

85.0%

100.0%

91.6%

 Specificity Preventicus screening

85.0%

100.0%

99.6%

 Positively validated screening results (after flutter ECG)

75.0%

95.0%

35%

 Increased incidence of spontaneous AF, AF population

1.0

3.0

1.0

Prevention Reduction stroke rate with prevention

40.0%

90.0%

70.0%

 Increased stroke rate with AF without prevention

2.0

5.0

4.2

 Marcumar proportion in OAC medication

10.0%

50.0%

29.0%

 Increase in the incidence of brain haemorrhage through VKA

3.0

10.0

4.0

 Reduction in cerebral haemorrhage through NOAC (compared with VKA)

35.0%

55.0%

41.0%

Costs, profits

 Scaling factor screening costs

0.5

5.0

1.0

 Prices OAC after patent expires (actual: 100%)

40%

100%

55%

 Clawback (rebate granted to health insurers?)

0.0%

25.0%

10.0%

 Years until patent expiry

2

10

3

 Scaling factor stroke 1- costs

0.5

1.5

1.0

 Scaling factor costs cerebral haemorrhage

0.75

3.0

1.0

 Scaling factor RSA

0.0

1.25

1.0

 Discount rate for costs

1.0%

5.0%

3.0%