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Table 1 Impact Analysis

From: Can adaptive clinical trials help to solve the productivity crisis of the pharmaceutical industry? - a scenario analysis

Impact Variation of phase III transition probabilities
I (80%) II (70%)
Overall trial success probability across all clinical phases 15.81% 13.37%
Cost per successful new drug 2190 million USD 2390 million USD
Cost savings per successful new drug compared to DiMasi et al. (2016) 370 million USD (−14.4%) 170 million USD (−6.6%)
Global cost reductions 14.4 bn USD 6.6 bn USD
Induced additional global R&D investments [lower; upper bound] 4.22 bn USD [2.12 bn;8.44 bn] 1.94 bn USD [0.970 bn; 3.87 bn]
Generated gain in life-years (in US) [lower; upper bound] 3.46 mill [1.74 mill; 6.93 mill] 1.58 mill [1.30 mill;3.17 mill]
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