Table 4 Cost (AUD), QALY and net monetary benefit per patient by model and time-horizon for the Markov and DES models
| Â | Base case analysis | Probabilistic sensitivity analysis | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cost# | Effect | Δ Cost# | Δ Effect | ICER | Net monetary benefit (NMB) | Δ Net monetary benefit | ||||
Mean NMB# | % change from the DES value | Δ NMB# | % change from the DES value | |||||||
Time horizon – 5 years | ||||||||||
 Markov model (cycle length 1 year) | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 147,000 | 3.17 | 196,000 | 0.35 | Dominant | −49,000 | 142% | 209,000 | −33% |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 343,000 | 2.82 | − 258,000 | 0.3% | ||||||
 Markov model (cycle length 0.5 year) | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 142,000 | 3.20 | 187,000 | 0.50 | Dominant | −96,000 | 22% | 191,000 | −26% |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 328,000 | 2.70 | − 287,000 | −10% | ||||||
 Discrete Event Simulation model | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 206,000 | 3.20 | 130,000 | 0.45 | Dominant | −118,000 |  | 141,000 |  |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 336,000 | 2.75 | − 259,000 |  | ||||||
Time horizon – 20 years | ||||||||||
 Markov model (cycle length 1 year) | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 267,000 | 6.89 | 371,000 | 1.64 | Dominant | −53,000 | 128% | 416,000 | −17% |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 639,000 | 5.25 | − 469,000 | −0.7% | ||||||
 Markov model (cycle length 0.5 year) | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 248,000 | 7.17 | 299,000 | 2.68 | Dominant | − 146,769 | −17% | 329,000 | 5% |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 547,000 | 4.49 | − 476,000 | −2% | ||||||
 Discrete Event Simulation model | Transplanting KDPI > 75 kidney | 322,000 | 7.09 | 285,000 | 2.09 | Dominant | − 121,000 |  | 345,000 |  |
Waitlisted for a kidney | 607,000 | 5.00 | − 466,000 |  | ||||||