Table 4 Basic parameters

S ₀

Population in t = 0

11,000,000

f

infection fatality rate

0.015

[58]+ p.i.^a

e

Average length of stay in exposed compartment

3

[59] + p.i.^a

ins

Average length of stay in compartment infectious but not sick

2

[59] + p.i.^a

si

average length of stay in compartment sick and infectious

11

[59] + p.i.^a

sni

average length of stay in compartment sick not infectious

7

[59] + p.i.^a

\( \overline{R_0} \)

Basic reproductive rate without intervention

2.5

[60]

\( \overline{R_i} \)

Basic reproductive rate with intervention

Scenario I: 2.5

Scenario II: 0.95

Scenario III: 2.5–0.95-2.5

Scenario IV: 2.5–0.95-1.5

assumption

d ₁

last day without intervention

120

assumption

d ₂

first day of maximum effect of intervention

150

assumption

d ₃

last day of intervention

210

assumption

d ₄

last day of effect of intervention

240

assumption

p

infectivity

0.1

[61, 62]