Table 1 Inputs used for the modeling of the increase in cigarette excise tax in Iran

Male population by age group

• 15–19 y–olds: 2,806,000

• 20–24 y–olds: 2,882,000

• 25–29 y–olds: 3,595,000

• 30–34 y–olds: 4,333,000

• 35–39 y–olds: 4,092,000

• 40–44 y–olds: 3,213,000

• 45–49 y–olds: 2,622,000

• 50–54 y–olds: 2,232,000

• 55–59 y–olds: 1,795,000

• 60–64 y–olds: 1,452,000

• 65–69 y–olds: 990,000

• 70–74 y–olds: 613,000

• 75–79 y–olds: 413,000

• ≥80 y–olds: 524,000

[18]

Cigarette smoking prevalence per expenditure quintile

• quintile I: 0.16

• quintile II: 0.20

• quintile III: 0.21

• quintile IV: 0.21

• quintile V: 0.19

Authors’ calculations based on HIES 2017

Price per pack (20 cigarettes) 2017 US$) commonly smoked in each quintile

• quintile I: 0.85

• quintile II: 0.89

• quintile III: 1.22

• quintile IV: 1.34

• quintile V: 1.15

Authors’ calculations based on HIESs 2001–2017

Proportion of deaths among smokers attributable to smoking

0.50

[19]

Reduction of smoking-attributable death risk by age at quitting

• 15–19 y–olds: 96.9%

• 20–24 y–olds: 94.8%

• 25–29 y–olds: 92.1%

• 30–34 y–olds: 89.2%

• 35–39 y–olds: 86.6%

• 40–44 y–olds: 83.7%

• 45–49 y–olds: 79.5%

• 50–54 y–olds: 72.9%

• 55–59 y–olds: 62.8%

• 60–64 y–olds: 49.9%

• 65–69 y–olds: 36.4%

• 70–74 y–olds: 24.7%

• 75–79 y–olds: 15.7%

• ≥80 y–olds: 9.1%

[13]

Proportion of smoking-attributable mortality, by cause

• Heart disease: 0.64

• Lung cancer: 0.06

• COPD: 0.08

• Stroke: 0.22

Global Burden of Disease study [20]

Utilization rates of healthcare services by tobacco-related disease

• Heart disease: 0.73

• Lung cancer: 0.57

• COPD: 0.37

• Stroke: 0.95

[21] and based on [22,23,24]

Tobacco-related disease treatment costs (2015

US$)

• Heart disease: US$ 1881

• Lung cancer: US$ 1585

• COPD: US$ 627

• Stroke: US$ 270

[25] and based on [26,27,28]

Relative utilization of health care per expenditure quintile (standardized to Quintile 3 as a reference)

• quintile I: 0.81

• quintile II: 0.92

• quintile III: 1

• quintile IV: 1.01

• quintile V: 1.09

[29]

Annual expenditure per adult equivalent (2017 US$)

• quintile I: 0 to 1664

• quintile II: 1664 to 2426

• quintile III: 2426 to 3361

• quintile IV: 3361 to 5005

• quintile V: >  5005

Authors’ calculations based on HIES 2017

Fraction of healthcare costs paid out-of-pocket

41%

[30]

Cigarette consumption (cigarettes per day) per quintile

Expenditure quintile I to V:

{16, 16.4, 16.6, 16.5, 15.7}

Authors calculation from HIESs

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.20 a day (2017, % of the population)

11%

Authors estimation from HIESs, fitted Gamma distribution

Number of male cigarette Smokers per expenditure quintile

• quintile I: 1,041,720

• quintile II: 1,302,300

• quintile III: 1,344,040

• quintile IV: 1,337,630

• quintile V: 1,256,450

Authors calculation based on HIESs

Participation price elasticity of demand for cigarette per quintile

Expenditure quintile I to V:

{−0.07, − 0.11, − 0.12, − 0.12, − 0.11}

Authors estimation based on [31] (Supplementary document, Appendix 3)