Table 2 Deterministic sensitivity analyses
Costs (T€) | Effectiveness (QALY) | ICER | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dabrafenib/ trametinib | observation | dabrafenib/ trametinib | observation | |||
Base Case results | 155.1 | 69.0 | 10.41 | 8.14 | 37.800 | |
Deterministic sensitivity analyses related to general model setup | ||||||
Costs and effectiveness undiscounted | Base case: 3% | 165.3 | 83.0 | 15.48 | 11.69 | 21.677 |
Model horizon 10 years | Base case: Lifetime | 149.1 | 58.6 | 5,74 | 4.87 | 104.092 |
Mortality rates converge to general population after 40 years | Base case: convergence after 8–10 years | 149.2 | 59.9 | 11.62 | 9.06 | 34.865 |
Survival curves shifted downwards: hazard ratios for RFS/DMFS/OS 10% higher | Base case: HR = 1. published curves | 157.1 | 71.6 | 9.82 | 7.48 | 37.751 |
Survival curves shifted upwards: hazard rates for RFS/DMFS/OS 10% lower | Base case: HR = 1. published curves | 152.8 | 65.9 | 11.07 | 8.82 | 38.576 |
Deterministic sensitivity analyses related transition probabilities with high uncertainty | ||||||
Split locoregional vs. DM when progressing from relapse free state: 80% DM, 20% LR | Base case: 33% LR. 67% DM | 164.0 | 78.1 | 10.35 | 8.07 | 37.658 |
Split locoregional vs. DM when progressing from relapse free state: 40% DM, 60% LR | Base case: 33% LR. 67% DM | 139.0 | 51.5 | 10.56 | 8.27 | 38.111 |
Transition probability from locoregional state to DM not increased compared to progression from RFS state to DM | Base case: Transition prob. increased by hazard ratio 1.5 | 151.6 | 63.8 | 10.44 | 8.18 | 38.787 |
Mortality in locoregional state not decreased compared to distant metastasis state | Base case: Mortality decreased by hazard ratio 0.35 | 167.4 | 81.0 | 10.31 | 8,03 | 37.787 |