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Table 5 Partitioned survival analysis setup and transition probabilities

From: Adjuvant treatment of high-risk melanoma – cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment options for BRAF 600 mutated tumors

Partitioned Survival Analysis

Branch

Sources

Overall Survival (OS)

Dab+Tram Placebo

Combi AD (54 months), Long (2017, Fig. 1B) [32]

Distant Metastasis Free Survival (DMFS)

Dab+Tram Placebo

Combi AD (60 Months), Hauschild (2018, Fig. 2B) [46]

Relapse Free Survival (RFS)

Dab+Tram Placebo

Combi AD (60 Months), Hauschild (2018, Fig. 2A) [46]

Overall Survival, Relapse Free Survival (RFS), and Distant Metastasis Free Survival (DMFS)

Nivolumab

Indirect comparisons using Hauschild (Dab+Tram vs. Placebo) [46], Eggermont (Ipilimumab vs. Placebo) [21] and Ascierto (Nivolumab vs. Ipilimumab) [37]]

Markov sub-model for disease progression

 

Sub-model structure based Gerbasi et.al. (2019) [40]

Transition RFS - > Death

All branches

General mortality for the German population (starting age 50 years) [41]

Transition RFS - > Progression

All branches

Assumption RFS- > Locoregional 33%, RFS- > Distant metastases 67% (based on [46], Table 1)

Transition locoregional progression - > Distant metastases 1st line treatment

All branches

Based on DMFS associated to the respective treatment branch. Hazard ratio increased by a factor of 1.5 (assumption) (similar approach as in [40]). Level of increase is lower compared to [40]

Transition Locoregional progression - > Death

All branches

Hazard ratio for distant metastases, 2nd Line - > Death (2LOS) in [40], Fig. 2C. Hazard ratio decreased by factor 0.35 (assumption)

Transition distant metastases 1st line treatment - > 2nd line treatment

All branches

Hazard ratio for Distant metastases, 1st line - > 2nd line. Source: [40], Fig. 2B.

Transition distant metastases 1st line treatment - > Death

All branches

Hazard ratio for distant metastases, 2nd Line - > Death (2LOS). Source: [40], Fig. 2C

Transition distant metastases 2nd line treatment - > Death

All branches

Hazard ratio for distant metastases, 2nd Line - > Death (2LOS). Source: [40], Fig. 2C

  1. Dab+Tram dabrafenib/trametinib combination therapy, OS Overall survival, DMFS Distant-metastasis free survival, RFS Relapse-free survival, 2LOS: 2nd line overall survival