Table 6 Cost Delta: Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis (by country)

Base Case

−74.91 €

5.63 €

5.97 €

15.44 €

19.90 €

33.13 €

−6.80 €

Ratio Unkown vs. known AF

[10% ... 75%]

[13 - -232 €]

[37 - -50 €]

[33 - -42 €]

[40 - -28 €]

[22–17 €]

[47–25 €]

[33 - -78 €]

Stroke incidence (OAC vs. No OAC)

[− 20%;+ 20%]

[−33 - -120 €]

[33 - -24 €]

[25 - -14 €]

[38 - -8 €]

[35–4 €]

[41–24 €]

[20 - -36 €]

Time Horizon (years)

[5 ... 20 yrs]

[10 - -75 €]

[44–5 €]

[37–6 €]

[55–15 €]

[34–19 €]

[35–32 €]

[44 - -7 €]

OAC medication costs

[− 70%;-10%]

[−81 - -119 €]

[−1 - -40 €]

[1 - -28 €]

[8 - -34 €]

[13 - -26 €]

[28 - -2 €]

[−14 - -54 €]

Cost index outpatient

[−20%;+ 20%]

[−48 - -102 €]

[47 - -44 €]

[21 - -9 €]

[33 - -2 €]

[31–9 €]

[40–26 €]

[14 - -28 €]

Stroke incidence

[− 20%;+ 20%]

[− 47 - -100 €]

[24 - -10 €]

[18 - -5 €]

[32–0 €]

[30–12 €]

[38–29 €]

[13 - -25 €]

Stroke incidence (AF vs. No AF)

[− 20%;+ 20%]

[− 47 - -100 €]

[24 - -10 €]

[18 - -5 €]

[32–0 €]

[30–12 €]

[38–29 €]

[13 - -25 €]

Screening procedure costs

[− 70%;-10%]

[−64 - -86 €]

[17 - -6 €]

[16 - -4 €]

[27–4 €]

[25–15 €]

[38–28 €]

[5 - -19 €]

AF prevalence

[−20%;+ 20%]

[− 50 - -100 €]

[15 - -3 €]

[14 - -2 €]

[22–8 €]

[20–19 €]

[35–31 €]

[5 - -18 €]

Discount rate

[0% ... 5%]

[− 60 - -102 €]

[11 - -5 €]

[11 - -3 €]

[21–4 €]

[21–17 €]

[34–33 €]

[1 - -22 €]

Cost index inpatient

[−20%;+ 20%]

[−63 - -87 €]

[13 - -1 €]

[10–2 €]

[21–10 €]

[24–16 €]

[34–32 €]

[− 1 - -13 €]