Table 4 Probit regression with average marginal effects (AME) for COVID-19 vaccination timing preference

Local vaccination rates (ref. = less than 30%)

 30 to 40%

-0.058

-0.222**

-0.111**

-0.037

0.005

-0.026

(0.055)

(0.041)

(0.040)

(0.028)

(0.022)

(0.027)

 40% or more

-0.187

-0.101

-0.142*

-0.029

0.030

-0.004

(0.096)

(0.054)

(0.063)

(0.062)

(0.030)

(0.054)

Trust in sources for reliable COVID-19 vaccines information

Among all the following sources, which ones would you trust more to give you reliable information on COVID-19 vaccines?

 European Union

-0.038**

-0.039**

-0.034**

-0.145**

-0.060**

-0.128**

(0.012)

(0.011)

(0.007)

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.016)

 National government

-0.012

-0.059**

-0.030**

-0.084**

-0.033

-0.063**

(0.013)

(0.017)

(0.011)

(0.023)

(0.018)

(0.021)

 National health authorities

-0.037**

-0.062**

-0.039**

-0.177**

-0.044**

-0.139**

(0.010)

(0.011)

(0.007)

(0.011)

(0.011)

(0.012)

 Local and regional public authorities

0.004

-0.039**

-0.014

-0.074**

-0.040

-0.066**

(0.017)

(0.014)

(0.011)

(0.029)

(0.023)

(0.025)

 Health professionals, doctors, nurses, and pharmacists

-0.045**

-0.030*

-0.030**

-0.160**

-0.048**

-0.137**

(0.007)

(0.012)

(0.007)

(0.012)

(0.011)

(0.012)

 Media (television, radio, newspapers)

0.017

-0.029*

-0.006

-0.048**

-0.020

-0.043*

(0.011)

(0.012)

(0.007)

(0.017)

(0.016)

(0.017)

 Websites

0.009

0.004

0.004

0.034

0.014

0.040*

(0.018)

(0.018)

(0.012)

(0.020)

(0.014)

(0.016)

 Online social networks

0.042**

0.017

0.023*

0.056*

-0.029

0.035

(0.014)

(0.017)

(0.011)

(0.022)

(0.017)

(0.021)

 People around you (colleagues, friends, and family)

0.043**

0.034*

0.035**

-0.048**

-0.001

-0.033*

(0.013)

(0.014)

(0.008)

(0.015)

(0.014)

(0.014)

Social norm

You would be more eager to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if you see more people around you doing it. (ref. = no)

 Yes

0.037**

0.002

0.016

-0.256**

-0.083**

-0.208**

(0.013)

(0.014)

(0.009)

(0.025)

(0.017)

(0.019)

Vaccine safety

To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

COVID-19 vaccines are being developed, tested, and authorized too quickly to be safe. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree)

 Totally agree/tend to agree

0.143**

0.151**

0.119**

0.032

0.013

0.031*

(0.009)

(0.011)

(0.008)

(0.018)

(0.013)

(0.015)

 Don’t know

0.040**

0.053**

0.036**

-0.042

0.074**

0.034

(0.013)

(0.017)

(0.011)

(0.025)

(0.029)

(0.026)

COVID-19 vaccines could have long term side effects that we do not know yet. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree)

 Totally agree/tend to agree

0.090**

0.097**

0.076**

0.083**

0.065**

0.100**

(0.011)

(0.010)

(0.008)

(0.022)

(0.017)

(0.021)

 Don’t know

-0.024

-0.016

-0.018

-0.044

0.086**

0.049

(0.012)

(0.015)

(0.010)

(0.025)

(0.028)

(0.029)

Risk understanding

To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?

You can avoid being infected by COVID-19 without being vaccinated. (ref. = totally disagree/tend to disagree)

 Totally agree/tend to agree

0.127**

0.111**

0.098**

0.128**

0.068**

0.127**

(0.009)

(0.014)

(0.010)

(0.013)

(0.011)

(0.011)

 Don’t know

0.093**

0.103**

0.079**

-0.003

0.140**

0.092**

(0.013)

(0.012)

(0.008)

(0.025)

(0.016)

(0.020)

Demographics

Age (ref. = 15–24 years)

 25–39 years

-0.115**

-0.037*

-0.051**

-0.002

-0.011

-0.003

(0.018)

(0.017)

(0.012)

(0.020)

(0.015)

(0.020)

 40–49 years

-0.223**

-0.097**

-0.117**

-0.021

-0.020

-0.019

(0.019)

(0.020)

(0.014)

(0.019)

(0.022)

(0.022)

 50–64 years

-0.328**

-0.115**

-0.177**

0.004

-0.025

-0.005

(0.024)

(0.024)

(0.016)

(0.027)

(0.019)

(0.025)

 65 years and above

-0.447**

-0.120**

-0.258**

-0.004

-0.039

-0.018

(0.031)

(0.031)

(0.021)

(0.029)

(0.025)

(0.027)

Gender (ref. = female)

 Male

0.014

-0.019

-0.001

-0.017

-0.046**

-0.033**

(0.008)

(0.012)

(0.007)

(0.010)

(0.011)

(0.011)

 In another way

0.091

0.068

0.071

-0.049

-0.060

-0.072

(0.100)

(0.073)

(0.061)

(0.100)

(0.101)

(0.113)

 Prefer not to answer

-0.024

-0.092

-0.059

-0.007

0.189

0.134

(0.163)

(0.123)

(0.091)

(0.164)

(0.100)

(0.105)

Age when full time education was stopped (ref. = 20 years or older)

 Up to 15 years

0.001

0.016

0.010

0.056

0.064

0.072

(0.023)

(0.027)

(0.019)

(0.042)

(0.036)

(0.040)

 16–19 years

0.013

0.022

0.014

0.037**

0.039**

0.045**

(0.011)

(0.013)

(0.008)

(0.012)

(0.012)

(0.013)

 Still in full time education

0.009

-0.029

-0.013

0.008

0.039*

0.035*

(0.021)

(0.019)

(0.014)

(0.020)

(0.019)

(0.016)

 Never been in full time education

0.075**

0.077**

0.064**

-0.003

-0.027

-0.016

(0.026)

(0.028)

(0.020)

(0.033)

(0.041)

(0.031)

 Don’t know

0.009

0.004

0.006

0.070**

0.124**

0.115**

(0.019)

(0.024)

(0.015)

(0.020)

(0.027)

(0.027)

 Refusal

0.008

0.000

0.002

0.120**

0.077*

0.120**

(0.031)

(0.057)

(0.032)

(0.030)

(0.035)

(0.029)

Type of community (ref. = town/city)

 Rural

-0.011

0.001

-0.005

0.053**

0.010

0.040**

(0.011)

(0.015)

(0.009)

(0.013)

(0.013)

(0.014)

Children in house (ref. = no)

 Yes

0.033**

0.005

0.015*

-0.005

-0.009

-0.009

(0.011)

(0.009)

(0.007)

(0.012)

(0.011)

(0.012)

 Don’t know

0.149**

0.067*

0.077**

0.007

-0.027

-0.011

(0.034)

(0.034)

(0.026)

(0.036)

(0.023)

(0.033)

 Refusal

0.043**

0.036

0.032*

0.034

0.033

0.041

(0.016)

(0.025)

(0.015)

(0.024)

(0.029)

(0.023)

 Observations

14,231

12,282

21,345

8,130

6,628

9,590

 Pseudo R²

0.285

0.124

0.168

0.181

0.061

0.119

 Log pseudolikelihood

-6663.08

-7326.20

-9828.79

-4369.42

-3282.06

-5829.99