Table 3 Sensitivity analysis results: cost-effectiveness of once-weekly semaglutide 0.5 mg and 1 mg versus sitagliptin 100 mg when added to metformin (per patient)

Univariate sensitivity analyses

Time horizon set to be 10 years

0.04

–18,169

(–2697)

dominant ^‡

0.05

–24,182

(–3589)

dominant ^§

Time horizon set to be 20 years

0.06

–29,521

(–4382)

dominant ^‡

0.09

–41,089

(–6099)

dominant ^§

Discount rate (costs and benefits) set to be 0% in line with China guidelines

0.17

–64,940

(–9639)

dominant ^‡

0.25

–92,752

(–13,768)

dominant ^§

Discount rate (costs and benefits) set to be 8% in line with China guidelines

0.06

–26,049

(–3867)

dominant ^‡

0.09

–35,081

(–5207)

dominant ^§

Use UKPDS 68 risk equations to run model

0.08

–33,686

(–5000)

dominant ^‡

0.12

–46,344

(–6879)

dominant ^§

HbA1c threshold for therapy escalation set to be 7.5%

0.08

–31,392

(–4660)

dominant ^‡

0.11

–35,916

(–5331)

dominant ^§

Utility impacts set to be 0.017 per unit BMI decrease and − 0.047 per unit BMI increase [29]

0.56

–34,848

(–5173)

dominant ^‡

0.81

–48,115

(–7142)

dominant ^§

BMI-related costs set to be 0

0.08

2805

(416)

34,163

(5071)

0.12

12,125

(1800)

99,466

(14,764)

BMI-related costs halved

0.08

–16,021

(–2378)

dominant ^‡

0.12

–17,995

(–2671)

dominant ^§

Alternative utility impacts for vascular complications [27, 28]

0.08

–34,848

(–5173)

dominant ^‡

0.12

–48,115

(–7142)

dominant ^§

Costs of vascular complications halved

0.08

–34,662

(–5145)

dominant ^‡

0.12

–47,839

(–7101)

dominant ^§

Scenario analyses

0.11

–37,451

(–5559)

dominant ^‡

0.15

–32,841

(–4875)

dominant ^§

Probabilistic sensitivity analyses

0.08

–33,297

(–4942)

dominant ^‡

0.12

–44,632

(–6625)

dominant ^§