Table 3 PSA distributions and parameters, base case values

General

Undetected AF in % detected AF

Beta

37.9

Assumption (prevention, 1/3

ratio undetected AF to detected AF)

Sensitivity Preventicus screening ^b

Beta

229

from DETECT AF [31]

Specificity Preventicus screening ^b

Beta

342.624

from DETECT AF [31]

Positively validated screening results (after Holter ECG) ^b

Beta

9.9875

Adoption acc. to Wachter et.al [44].

 Marcumar proportion in OAC medication

Triangular

 Increased stroke rate with AF without prevention

Normal

4.2

mean: Wolf et.al [40]. SD: assumption

 Reduction of stroke rate through prevention ^b

Normal

0.686

Assumptions, based on Hart [23] and López-López [26]

 Stroke rate normal population

Normal

1.00

SD according to Kolominisky-Rabas [49]

 Frequency of recurrent stroke

Beta

52.48

Hardie [48]: Perth registry

 Mortality, year 1 (SMR)^a

Normal

3.7

Bromum-Hansen [46], year 0–1

 Mortality, subsequent years (SMR) ^a

Normal

1.92

Bronnum-Hansen [46], years 2–5

 Mortality, recurrence (SMR factor)

Triangular

Assumption according to Hardie [48]

 Stroke costs, year 1

Gamma

434.0277

Kolominsky-Rabas [3] / variation

coefficient derived from lifetime,

2006 prices

 Stroke costs, subsequent years

Gamma

434.0277

discounted costs, 2006 prices

 Increased mortality, AF subpopulations

Normal

25&

Wolf, Mitchel [52]

 Severe bleedings, without OAC:

Normal

0.023

Friberg [29, 50], Granger: Apixaba n[29]

 Severe bleedings, with OAC

Normal

0.039

Mix of VKA and NOAC

 Less severe bleedings, without OAC

Normal

0.08256

Assumption: ratio with/without same as with severe bleeding

 Less severe bleedings, with OAC

Normal

0.14

Krejczy [53],Grange r[29],

 Increase in the incidence of brain haemorrhage through VKA

Normal

4.00

Assumption, SD analogous to

Wolf [40]

 Reduction in cerebral haemorrhages through NOAC (compared with VKA)

Beta

24.34211

Chatterjee [51], suppl., eFigure 3

Mortality cerebral haemorrhages

Beta

37.422

Fang [54]

 Age decrement (per year)

Normal

−0.00029

Sullivan [55]

 with AF

Beta

33.82

Gauthier: HTA Canada [56] citng

Sullivan et.al [57, 58]

 with AF: reduction factor with VKA medication ^b

Uniform

0.953

Shah & Gage [59] (range), Gage et.al [60].

 with AF: reduction factor with NOAC

medication ^b

Uniform

0.990

Shah & Gage [59] (range), O’Brien, Gage [61]

 after cerebral haemorrhage, year 1

Beta

11.41332

Golicki [62] (ICD I61 result)

 after stroke, year 1

Beta

378.6275

Golicki [62] (ICD I63 result)

 after stroke: reduction in the year of the event

Normal

0.103

Gauthier: HTA Canada [56], citing

Sullivan et.al [57].

 after stroke or cerebral haemor- rhage, subsequent years ^b

Uniform

0

Shah & Gage [59] (range)

 Decrement for severe bleeding

Normal

−0,092

Gauthier: HTA Canada [56], Freeman [63], Thomson [64]

 Decrement for less severe bleeding

Normal

−0.013

Gauthier: HTA Canada [56], Freeman [63], O’Brien [61]